Now that the International Monetary Fund(IMF) has clearly put out the numbers, everyone’s suspensions about where 2020 is going to be economically wise as the virus that has besieged the entire world have passed. So the IMF predicted that the global economy is going to shrink by 3% which is approximately 9 trillion dollars being wiped out just like a mist. China which is very central to this all dilemma has said it’s economy has plummeted 6.5% which is a new low for them and that is going undoubtedly to affect the global GDP.
The last financial catastrophe of 2009 saw a drop of about 0.1%, which means 2020 is an enchantment to humanity. We are in waters we have never been to or really pictured ourselves in. The last crisis was predictable even if it took the world practically a full decade to recover from, things have just been getting better.
The new IMF economic outlook numbers deduce COVID-19 goes away in the succeeding half of 2020 and that policy prosecution adopted in places like our Uganda by the ministry of finance and our central bank are productive in dissuading extensive establishment insolvencies, inflated job losings, and system-wide financial tensions. That is the plan
Most people I have talked to have taken the path of optimism which I refuse because the reality is engraved in stone about the future of the economy. Those hoping for a miracle claim that the economy was put to sleep in an induced coma. This is one of those times when a person put in a coma for their safety doesn’t work out so well when the doctors try to bring him back to life. It will take time and great united coordinated strategies to get the economy back up. In the middle of all sorts of trade wars in the world.
One thing is clear no job out there is safe, even those holding public offices by vote, this is a time regimes can fall but that is for the political jobs. There are already reports of spikes in levels of unemployment in the world. The Observer one of the tabloids in Uganda has fronted anecdotes, “not yet confirmed by the principal parties yet” of the leading international hotels laying off employees. This is going to become the new normal until things get better because of businesses not earning at the moment.
The Ugandan economy is largely reliant on the hospitality industry and tourism. With International aviation crumbling it means that even when this virus comes to pass tourists will take a while to find their footing to move around. In Africa there are few sectors that are not connected to tourism in some way, bloggers hope you hear me. The strategy has to change. Music festivals that support the gig economy are going to be hit hard since most of the attendees are actually tourists. Think of any additional gigs including raid hailing sector of Lyft and Uber even real estate talking furnished houses for back baggers and the like.
The other sector that was already not doing so well in Uganda is real estate, a story for another day but in relation to COVID-19 here is how the sector may take tackles, so we have adopted the work from home and it seems to be working very well for some institutions that have Human Resources Management that has figured it out. Why would your boss continue paying rent of the two floors you occupy when you are delivering from your sitting room or kitchen, for bloggers you are used to writing in your beds but accounts and the rest are just getting the hang of it and it’s going to be vital in reducing expenditures to maintain your paycheck. So the land Lords are going to take the punch from that side meaning they won’t pay their loans in time lessening their banker’s earnings who will also have to shift the burden most likely to his wages budget by laying off a few workers to balance the boat. No one is safe.
Still on real estate landlords who own residential property have to become flexible to levels of reducing prices or taking weekly rent to make things work with their occupants since they are neither not earning anything as the economy is in bed at the moment. Construction projects are going to really slow for those dealing in putting up buildings because that line of investment is not going to be viable for a while. More jobs are going to freeze that end. And the chain is long from the hardware shops to transporters to those guys that just push wheelbarrows on the sites.
Events management was the first to take the knock, photographers, catering, to dressmaking and all those things that are involved in a traditional wedding and your baby shower or birthday are as equally as messed up as your stock market broker.
If you have noticed the entertainment industry has been hit hard too, all movies that were coming out were pushed to the end of the year meaning cinemas are not going to earn usually plus your movie guy, may be Netflix and the other streaming platforms are earning. But we know how much the movie industry impacts the world.
We have all noticed how this virus has exposed health systems of those countries we almost worship, and one way they are going to cover their remorseful is by taking away all charitable funds may be sending here and channeling it back to their own backyards meaning NGOs are going to downsize or even park up and go, besides they won’t be much money for starts to send to us since they are worst hit. Africa got independence mostly because World War had taken a toll on Europe, this time too they will scale back taking jobs with them till things start picking up.
There are lessons, one is nothing under the sun is safe no matter what the experts say. But the more practical lessons are like the change in the way we do things, like for now, almost everyone has a Zoom app on their device for communicating. We are seriously learning that computerized systems are vital for every business venture. Cash stocks in another one, you can’t eat your cars or land titles and any other things where you may think wise to keep money. We have to get used to online purchases since the supply chain as we knew it has changed.
The World Bank and IMF will come at some stage to save things but they will come on their terms of tough austerity measures of ordering our government to cut jobs before they give us loans that we will never be able to pay, we are already stealing food from ourselves, who knows how we are going to handle the financial shocks waves of this virus after all the ministry of finance has adamantly refused to adjust the national budget even when they know earnings in form of taxes are going to drop.
I don’t want to think because China is through the bad phase that they benefit they are still in it since they can’t ferry good to economies that are sleeping